Herbal Profiles #104

Inside the inflection point: billion-dollar validation, brand fragmentation, and why regulators are moving fast.

Welcome Note

Welcome Back Gardeners to the 104th edition of Herbal Profiles!

Happy Friday yall! Hope everyone enjoyed the short week. I have begun to put together a directory of brands, it currently has a little over 200 brands in there! If you know any brands, please leave a comment on the spreadsheet or shoot me an email and I will get it added. I do plan to add some more columns like format (shot, enhancer, spirit, rtd, etc) to the spreadsheet as well as a ‘minimum thc’ column too. So it’s still very much a work in progress. But take some time and review it and hit me any brands you see that are not currently included!

And don’t miss the latest episode of the Free Spirits Podcast. 

Let’s get into it.

-Lars

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The Free Spirits Podcast with David Gonzalez and myself just dropped episode 13 of season 2 with Hyde’s Hail Mary Founder, Micah Hyde!

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THC Beverages in 2025

Two+ years ago, THC beverages were largely written off as a dispensary-bound curiosity, often cited as ~1% of the legal cannabis market per long-running coverage like Marijuana Venture’s analysis of beverage share. Or a niche product with no long term function, both by professionals and consumers. Today, the category has crossed a milestone few expected this quickly: $1.0–$1.3 billion in legal U.S. sales in 2024, according to Whitney Economics’ U.S. THC Beverage Report 2025. Whitney also pegs total market potential at $9.9–$14.9 billion, underscoring how far the space has come, and how much room remains.

Receipts: How Fast This Grew

The U.S. THC Beverage Report 2025 estimates 500–750 active brands nationwide, with only ~20 scaled into double-digit millions in revenue. Most hover around $2 million, a sign of both fragmentation and a thin “middle class” of operators. Distribution is no longer dispensary-dominated either: Whitney’s toplines show a hemp-retail majority (convenience, grocery, on-/off-premise, and DTC) versus a shrinking dispensary share, an inversion of the early days when dispensaries controlled the cooler and the category was largely viewed as a niche category and one that wasn’t economically viable due a myriad of reasons.

The “rounding-error” view persisted into 2023, again, ~1% of total regulated cannabis sales was the common refrain in trade coverage like Marijuana Venture. But normalization arrived fast once brands began to pivot to hemp-derived THC. In Minnesota, municipal liquor stores publicly credited THC offerings with lifting performance, highlighting how mainstream shelves are shaping trial and repeat. The elusive ‘soccer mom’ archetype that all the THC bros said didn’t actually exist, actually exist. They just didn’t want to shop in a dispensary (and who can blame them, it’s hardly an enjoyable experience). That retail access, plus on-premise experiments and direct-to-consumer, is a big reason the category now clears a billion.

The Regulator Moment

Normalization was not just consumer-led. The Center for Alcohol Policy published a national survey of Americans’ views on hemp-derived THC beverages, finding strong awareness and clear preferences for how these products should be overseen. Meanwhile, lawmakers have been busy: more than 80 bills regulating hemp beverages appeared in state legislatures this year, as reported by the Washington Post citing state-policy trackers. Alcohol-tier stakeholders are also weighing in, American Beverage Licensees issued a policy memo on intoxicating THC products that reads like a playbook for placing these beverages squarely inside the existing alcohol-licensing framework.

Why Engagement Matters Now

This is exactly why HBA is urging brands to engage alcohol regulators proactively. Meet them with data: clear dosing and serving guidance, verified third-party testing, age-gating, labeling, and retail guardrails that mirror the alcohol world (server training, ID checks, traceability). If alcohol administrators take formal oversight and standardize on-/off-premise rules, the industry could unlock much more of that $9.9–$14.9B potential far sooner than waiting for federal clarity. Whitney’s forecast for 2025 growth, with acceleration in 2026 as rules settle, assumes access keeps widening. Your outreach helps make that true.

The Inflection Point

Crossing the $1B threshold is a huge milestone as it is obviously proof of concept. Consumers want these products; retailers can move them; regulators are deciding who holds the keys. Two years ago, this was largely a dispensary-only niche. Today, it’s a genuine category with mainstream velocity. The next phase will be shaped by how well operators organize around standards and regulator relationships, or, if they don’t, by bans and overreach that slow everything down.

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